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Cyber Threats Behind the Headlines: Trade Tensions and the Next Wave of State-Linked Activity

Updated: Apr 15


This isn’t just a geopolitical headline—it’s a tactical reality. As trade tensions ramp up, the digital fallout is already hitting networks. We’re seeing the same pattern again: tariffs go up, and so do intrusion attempts. Cyber activity closely follows geopolitical disruption, and if you’re in the path of that fallout—especially in critical infrastructure, semiconductors, logistics, or tech—you need to be paying attention.


APT10 went heavy in 2018 when the U.S. levied tariffs on China—targeting IP, stealing credentials, and planting persistent access in U.S. networks [1]. Now, with fresh trade strain back in the news, APT41 and others are pivoting toward supply chain platforms, VPN infrastructure, and business operations linked to U.S. critical sectors [2].


These campaigns aren’t theoretical—they’re happening. And they’re not just going after federal systems. If your company handles sensitive designs, vendor logistics, or manufacturing ops, you’re a soft target. Private-sector networks offer the access, IP, and agility these actors want—and often lack the visibility and controls to catch them in time.


Supply Chain Risk Is Now a Primary Threat Vector


When trade dynamics shift, companies scramble to adjust suppliers or find alternate sourcing. That often leads to rushed onboarding and expanded vendor exposure—prime conditions for adversaries looking to slip into the chain.


SolarWinds was the loudest wake-up call, but it wasn’t the only one [3]. Today’s attackers are still exploiting firmware, abusing API trust paths, and living in third-party integrations. And if your vendor footprint spans multiple regions, especially outside the U.S., odds are good that threat actors have them scoped out too.


We saw this during the chip shortages—logistics and OEM platforms being probed for weak links. Credential harvesting campaigns aimed at procurement teams. Credential stuffing attacks hitting supplier web portals.


Bottom line: your attack surface isn’t just your assets—it’s every supplier you’ve linked to, directly or indirectly. If you’re not continuously mapping that surface and testing for inherited risk, you’re flying blind.


What to Watch For


Expect a rise in phishing lures themed around trade compliance or shipping delays. We’re talking fake customs notices, fake tariff updates, fake vendor credential requests—any pretext that fits the headlines.


APT actors often spoof trusted brands or government entities. For example, domains like cdn.dropboxusercontent.com and office365.microsoft.com have been used to host malicious payloads [2]. Phishing emails may include attachments titled Invoice_2021.doc, Payment_Details.pdf, or Customs_Declaration_Form.docx—all document names seen in verified threat campaigns.


VPN infrastructure—particularly Fortinet and Pulse Secure—will keep getting hammered. Watch for scanning on ports 443/8443, traffic with curl or python-requests user agents, and access attempts from foreign IPs. CVE-2018-13379 and CVE-2019-11510 still haven’t gone away.


Monitor account activity tied to R&D and procurement teams. These users are prime targets for credential theft and lateral movement. Look for logins from unfamiliar geolocations, sudden permission escalations, or spikes in outbound traffic volume.

If you’re not tracking these indicators in near real-time, you’re going to miss something. When the trade rhetoric heats up, you have to assume the scanning and staging already started.

Recognizing these indicators is the first step. Next comes building a defensive posture that’s tuned to this threat environment.

Practical Safeguards: Tactical / Technical Response


Let’s break this down into real, operational steps—what your security team should be doing now to tighten up defenses and stay ahead of targeted activity. These aren’t theoretical checkboxes; this is the work that matters.


1. EDR Validation & Endpoint Visibility

Start with an audit of your endpoint detection and response (EDR) tool coverage. Ensure that agents are installed, up to date, and actively reporting. Pay special attention to:

  • Remote workforce devices

  • Contractor or BYOD endpoints

  • Cloud-hosted VMs or unmanaged IaaS assets

💡 Action: Query your SIEM for systems that haven’t checked in within the last 48 hours. Use tools like osquery, Wazuh, or our in-house tool FimoniSec to enumerate and compare expected vs. actual asset coverage.


2. Patch and Harden Known Exploited Vulnerabilities

Focus on the vulnerabilities that are being actively exploited by APT groups right now—not just legacy risks. These should be prioritized for patching, monitoring, or isolation.

  • CVE-2025-24993 – Windows NTFS Remote Code Execution [4]

  • CVE-2025-22457 – Ivanti Connect Secure Buffer Overflow [5]

  • CVE-2025-29824 – Windows CLFS Driver Use-After-Free [6]

  • CVE-2025-0411 – 7-Zip Homoglyph Zero-Day [7]

  • ZDI-CAN-25373 – Windows Shortcut (.lnk) Exploit [8]

  • CVE-2023-34362 – MOVEit Transfer SQLi [9]

  • CVE-2021-26855 – ProxyLogon [10]

  • CVE-2018-13379 – Fortinet FortiOS Path Traversal [11]


Cross-reference these against your asset inventory and ensure remediation is tracked. If any of these show up unpatched in your environment, they should trigger immediate review and potential IR readiness checks.


3. Emulate APT Tactics in a Controlled Test

Use tools like Atomic Red Team or Caldera to simulate behaviors observed in groups like APT10 and APT41. Try credential dumping with rundll32.exe, lateral movement via WMIExec, and data staging in C:\ProgramData with exfil via certutil.exe.


4. Monitor for Trade-Themed Phishing & Malware Delivery

Set up alerts around economic or policy-themed lures. These are often tied to fake trade updates or shipping policies.


5. Intel-Driven Detection Engineering

Use current threat intel to feed your detection logic. Pull from trusted sources and map to known actor TTPs.

💡 IOC Examples:

Want to know if any of your users are interacting with Microsoft 365 tenants outside your organization? Try this Splunk query:

index=proxy OR index=firewall sourcetype=web_proxy 
("login.microsoftonline.com" OR "office365.com" OR "office.com") 
| rex field=uri_path "tenant=(?<tenant_id>[a-zA-Z0-9\\-]+)"
| stats count by tenant_id, src_ip, uri_path 
| where tenant_id != "your-actual-tenant-id"

Practical Safeguards: Executive and Strategic Posture


This isn’t just an IT issue—it’s an operational risk with business-wide implications. Trade-driven cyber events hit your supply chain, your contracts, and your continuity. If executive leadership isn’t looped in, your incident response will be slow and your exposure wider than you think.


Tabletop Exercises That Matter


Run tabletops that start technical and escalate to strategic. For example, simulate credential theft from a vendor login portal that leads to fraudulent invoicing and AP compromise. Then walk through how finance, legal, PR, and exec teams react under pressure.


Inject scenarios like foreign IP login attempts, vendor breach disclosures, or geopolitical developments that may trigger targeting. Force decision-making. Clarify escalation paths. Document the gaps.


Writing Risk Communications That Work


Ditch the fluff. Use language that’s specific, time-bound, and actionable. “We’ve contained the breach and isolated vendor access to shared procurement folders” beats “We are actively enhancing our cybersecurity measures.”


Have pre-written templates for common events: credential phish, vendor compromise, and cloud exposure. Align with IR, legal, and comms leads so you can deploy fast without rewriting from scratch.


Strategic Planning That Reflects Cyber Reality


Cyber risk belongs in every expansion, M&A, and digital rollout discussion. If you're moving into regions with active cyber ops, switching vendors to overseas platforms, or launching a SaaS product with IP value—model the threats tied to those decisions.


Build geo-linked risk maps. Identify which vendors touch sensitive data. Align your procurement pipeline with threat actor targeting patterns. Use that data in board briefings, not just IR playbooks.


Final Thoughts and How We Can Help


This isn’t theoretical—it’s already happening. You don’t need a threat feed to see it. When trade tensions rise, the actors move quickly. They hit where defenses are weakest—supply chains, legacy tech, and unmonitored endpoints.


We help clients prepare with precision. From red team simulations to real-world risk modeling and executive advisory, Red Cell Security equips companies to operate securely—before, during, and after the breach.


Keith Pachulski

Red Cell Security, LLC


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