We recently returned from a series of trips to both Eastern and Western Europe, where we conducted risk and target assessments for our clients. During these assessments, we had the privilege of speaking with contacts across various industries and government sectors. A recurring theme in our conversations was the growing concern over Russia’s expanding influence—not just politically but through direct kinetic and cyber actions targeting neighboring countries. While Ukraine remains at the center of Russia’s aggression, many of Russia’s neighbors are grappling with a shadow war of their own. This blog post delves into the documented attacks outside of Ukraine and sheds light on the broader risks facing the region.
The Expanding Reach of Russia’s Political and Military Influence
Over the past decade, Russia has sought to reassert its dominance over former Soviet states and influence countries in Eastern and Western Europe. This ambition has manifested in a blend of soft power, economic leverage, and military aggression. However, it is Russia’s use of hybrid warfare—combining cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and kinetic operations—that has proven most disruptive.
Countries such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and even nations further west like Germany and Finland, have reported an uptick in cyber intrusions, ransomware attacks, and physical incursions. These attacks are often designed not only to disrupt critical infrastructure but to create fear, sow discord, and weaken public trust in democratic institutions.
Cyberattacks: A Silent Battlefield
Estonia (2007): Often regarded as the first significant act of cyber warfare, Estonia experienced a coordinated Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack targeting government websites, banks, and media outlets. This attack disrupted daily life for weeks and highlighted vulnerabilities in digital infrastructure.
Lithuania (2021): Russian-affiliated hackers targeted Lithuania’s government institutions with a wave of ransomware attacks and phishing campaigns. These efforts aimed to destabilize the country’s political processes and gain access to sensitive data.
Poland (2022): In a documented incident, Russian cyber actors attempted to infiltrate Poland’s power grid, likely testing the resilience of its critical infrastructure. While the attack was mitigated, it served as a stark reminder of the high stakes involved.
Germany (2015): Known as the Bundestag Hack, this attack resulted in the exfiltration of thousands of emails from Germany’s parliament. The breach was attributed to APT28 (Fancy Bear), a hacking group linked to Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU).
Baltic Sea Fiber Optic Disruptions (Recent): Recent reports have highlighted sabotage targeting critical undersea infrastructure. The Baltic Sea, in particular, has seen suspicious disruptions to its fiber optic cables, raising alarms about Russia’s potential involvement. Such incidents point to an evolving strategy to undermine regional communication and data flow, exacerbating tensions.
Kinetic Threats: Testing Boundaries
Airspace Violations in the Baltic States: Russian aircraft frequently violate the airspace of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These incursions are not only dangerous but also serve as a show of force to remind these nations of their geographic and strategic vulnerability.
The Russo-Georgian War and Its Precedent: While not recent, the 2008 Russo-Georgian War set a precedent for how Russia uses kinetic force to achieve political objectives. Russia’s continued presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia demonstrates its willingness to defy international norms.
Tensions Around the Suwalki Gap: NATO’s eastern flank remains under threat due to the Suwalki Gap, a 100-kilometer stretch of land between Poland and Lithuania. Russian military exercises and deployments in nearby Kaliningrad keep this area under constant tension.
Sabotage Operations in Czechia: In Czechia (Czech Republic), Russian operatives were implicated in the 2014 Vrbetice ammunition depot explosion. This covert operation killed two people and was revealed years later to be tied to the GRU, exemplifying Russia’s clandestine tactics.
The Role of Disinformation
Russia’s tactics extend beyond physical and cyber domains to include disinformation campaigns. These efforts aim to undermine unity within NATO and the European Union. For example, Russian-backed media outlets in Latvia and Lithuania spread false narratives about NATO troops stationed in these countries, alleging misconduct to weaken public support. In Germany, disinformation campaigns have targeted political figures and exploited societal divides, such as the refugee crisis, to polarize public opinion.
What Does This Mean for Europe?
The growing frequency and complexity of Russia’s actions pose a clear threat to regional stability. Nations must invest in resilience—both physical and digital—to counter these risks effectively. Collaborative defense frameworks, such as NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP), are critical, but individual countries must also bolster their own security postures.
From what we observed on the ground, the fear of escalation is very real. Countries like Finland and Sweden, which have historically maintained neutrality, are now reconsidering their positions. Similarly, Eastern European countries are hardening their defenses, knowing that they are on the front lines of this hybrid warfare.
Closing Thoughts
The shadow of Russia’s aggression looms large over Europe, even beyond Ukraine. Cyberattacks, border violations, and disinformation campaigns are all part of a calculated strategy to destabilize and divide. The sabotage of fiber optic cables in the Baltic Sea underscores the evolving nature of these threats. As security professionals, it is imperative that we not only understand these threats but also anticipate and mitigate them for our clients.
The lessons we learn from Europe’s struggles can inform our strategies globally, as hybrid warfare becomes the new norm in geopolitical conflicts. If you have concerns about your organization’s readiness to face similar threats, let’s start a conversation.
At Red Cell Security, we offer a full suite of services, including risk assessments, resilience planning, cybersecurity vulnerability assessments, active threat emulation testing, physical security target assessments, penetration testing, and managed security services. Our expertise ensures that your organization is prepared to navigate today’s complex threat landscape while focusing on your core business priorities.
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